Economic relationship between land use and growing population

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economic relationship between land use and growing population

In studying the population and land use relationship, it is essential to consider .. Boserup, E. The Conditions of Agricultural Growth: The Economics of. population and population growth affect not only development of rural lands and relevant literature on economics of land use change. temporal relationship. The impacts of population on socio-economic development in the increase of land use degree in areas where population densities decreased.

It is difficult to evaluate these changes, partly due to the poor quality of available land use data and the difficulty of determining whether climate change or human activity has had the greatest effect on land use. Wolman questions whether the absolute size of the population or the rate of population increase has been more important in affecting land use change.

He concludes that, given that the pace and types of land use change and population growth in the past are very different from those of today, the study of the past may not be the key to understanding the future. In assessing the effects of changes in land use on the environment, Isaak S.

"Explain the economic relationships between land use and a growing population"?

Zonneveld's paper, which is included in this volume, discusses the importance of maintaining ecological integrity as land use changes. He describes the emergence of landscape ecology to study land form, function, and change. Zonneveld explains how and why land use change is measured and describes the strengths and weaknesses of remote sensing.

Steward Pickett's commentary, summarized in this volume, builds a bridge between the natural scientists' perspectives of Wolman and Zonneveld and the social science perspectives of the other papers. Ecologists are shifting from studying ecosystems with little human intervention to analyzing the human dimensions of the ecological changes they document.

He concludes by noting that "the battle to include humans in the scope of ecology is evidenced by the persistence of George Perkins Marsh's 'great question': Binswanger's discussion of his published research with Prabhu Pingali quantified how farmers responded to population growth through land intensification and extensification. Binswanger reviewed many of the innovations that farmers in developing countries make in the face of population pressures, such as irrigation, use of fertilizers, and multiple cropping.

He also discussed the differences between the development of agriculture in the United States, which had relatively low population density, and in Japan, with high population density, to illustrate the different innovations farmers may make when faced with very different resource constraints. Binswanger and Pingali's research concludes that, in growing populations, moderate increases in agricultural production are feasible with low-level land investments. However, a rapidly growing population will out-strip this agricultural production capacity without the intervention of science-and industry-based inputs, such as high-yielding seeds Binswanger and Pingali, Many factors can slow the speed of Boserupian responses.

Uma Lele's paper and discussion outline the primary impediments operating in Africa. She notes that population is not distributed according to land quality because of high rates of vector-carried diseases in some areas and the placement of colonial infrastructure and European settlements. Macroeconomic policies that discriminate against agriculture distort market prices and thus people's responses to increased population size.

economic relationship between land use and growing population

The development of Western-style land tenure systems in Africa has sometimes led to the concentration of rights of access in certain groups and removed indigenous means of determining usage. In addition, poor credit markets and lack of technology suited for African agriculture have made the land intensification process more difficult.

Using cross-sectional data collected at the national level to quantify some of the relationships that Boserup's and Binswanger and Pingali's research identifies, Bilsborrow and Geores's paper finds a strong relationship between overall population density and the percentage of agricultural and pasture land used in production.

Increases in fertilizer use have occurred widely across developing countries in recent decades as populations have Page 8 Share Cite Suggested Citation: However, the relationship between percentage changes in population and land used are not significant.

economic relationship between land use and growing population

Furthermore, the cross-sectional analysis among countries shows no relationship between density of population and the rate of depletion of forests. They document the poor quality of the data and the difficulty of doing cross-sectional analysis using data from developing countries. But they also suggest that this kind of research could be useful in identifying the key relationships to be pursued in more depth within countries.

Many of the conclusions of the Binswanger, Bilsborrow, and Lele presentations were illustrated in the case studies that were presented. Four of these studies have been summarized and are included in this volume. In fact, given the problems of making international comparisons and the limitations of current theories about how land use changes with increasing population density, the case studies of specific regions presented at the workshop became critical in better defining the issues and problems.

Nigeria, India, Mauritius, Thailand, and Honduras were the countries discussed. Rapid increases in population in northern Nigeria since the s and the resultant land use changes are the subject of Michael Mortimore's paper, which is summarized in this volume. He demonstrates that the small-scale farmer invests considerably more in land improvement in the high-population-density area than in the low-density area to meet growing demands for food.

In the high-density area, soil fertility is being managed on a sustainable basis. Given these results, he concludes that "population growth, and high population density, are compatible with sustainable resource management under smallholder conditions. He estimates the effects of population change on several agricultural investments during — The first stage of analysis shows that some of the investment in agricultural research, agricultural extension services, and rural infrastructure and net cropped area were induced by either population growth or increases in population density.

However, many of these changes were also partly the result of strategic planning by the government. Historically, the most important driving force for most land use changes is population growth Meyer and Turner, ; Bilsborrow and Ogendo, although there are several interacting factors involved Lambin et al. In developed countries, land use change is based on economic reasons such as large-scale farming or urban development and an increasing need to conserve biodiversity and environmental duality for current and future generations Bouma et al.

Population dynamics is quite important since reallocation of land is required to accommodate the ever increasing population Verburg et al. Regional, national and global land conversion and consumption rates would continue to increase as population grows up. As the population and standard of life improves there is an obvious demand for producing more from natural resources especially the land.

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To meet such needs, the arable lands, built-up land are bound to expand at the cost of the natural land cover Showqi et al. Despite on-going efforts around the world at various scales, an information gap still exists in our understanding of the relationship between spatial-temporal pattern of the land use change and population dynamics Clark, ; Eglington et al. Especially in China, most reports mainly researched the statistical relations between translated land areas and population, seldom of them analyzed the impacts of population dynamics on land use pattern and landscape pattern changes Wang et al.

In this paper, we selected western Jilin province in China as the study area to provide a case study for understanding the relationship between spatial-temporal pattern of the land use change and population dynamics, in which we used spatialization methods to quantify the population dynamics in different counties and select several indicators, such as land use degree comprehensive index LUDCIland use dynamic index LUDI and land use relative change LURC to stand for spatial-temporal pattern of land use change and landscape pattern.

Topographically, the area was flat and situated mainly on an alluvial plain with an average altitude of m Figure 1. Fourth, we adopt for the model as a whole a welfare approach, whereby consumers and producer interests are represented explicitly, through utility and profit maximizing behavior, and the budgets of every agent can be made explicit and kept consistent, while markets clear and transport flows are routed optimally through the country.

In addition, the framework is sufficiently flexible to accommodate government policies and economic distortions at various levels, ranging from tariffs at the national border, income transfers among rural and urban actors and across regions, to agricultural taxes or subsidies at the county level.

It distinguishes 17 commodities 16 agricultural and 1 nonagricultural and 6 socioeconomic classes 3 rural and 3 urban income classes. For each commodity the model has regional markets connected to the international market. Consumer preferences, geographical distribution of supply, and costs of trade and transportation jointly determine the resulting endogenous trade flows. The nonagricultural production and consumption of tradable commodities are modeled at the level of the 8 economic regions.

The economy is opened up to the rest of the world; imports and exports can occur endogenously. Trade between regions and the international market is modeled bilaterally Keyzer, China's agriculture and economy are characterized by a considerable spatial diversity.

economic relationship between land use and growing population

Distances between producing and consuming areas are sometimes substantial and cannot be neglected. China's direction toward a more market-oriented economy creates price differences across the country. Transport and handling costs play a major role in this. From the start of the project, a key issue was how to incorporate the price transmission between the international harbors and China's vast hinterland.

Spatial Representation of Agricultural Supply For these reasons, the administrative unit of the county was introduced to represent agricultural activities 14 aggregate cropping activities, 9 livestock supply activities, 5 farm inputs supply activities. It is also the market level for certain rather immobile commodities e. As a consequence of this spatial refinement, the model needs information on trade and transportation costs to connect county-level and regional markets.

Economic Development and Land-Use Conversion in the Main Course Area of the Yangtse River Basin

As mentioned before, a separate transport flow model supplies the necessary coefficients. The model includes a detailed component for agricultural production operating at the level of the approximately 2, counties to achieve a proper multicommodity, multiagent representation, which reflects the diversity of the resource basis and cropping patterns of farms and the nontradability of some of the commodities and inputs between them.

The basic structure of the agricultural production relations consists of an output function and an input response function, linked by means of an agricultural output index. This output index is a quantity aggregation of crops produced. It is based on a standard aggregation rule used in economics, namely a constant elasticity of transformation function.

As a starting point for supply estimation, we derived a database of rain-fed and irrigated crop production in and The compilation was based on county-level statistical information of crop production and agricultural inputs, land survey data, and spatially detailed i. Production is codetermined by the biophysical potential of land and by the level of factor inputs per unit of land.

Potential output is based on results generated by an enhanced agro-ecological zones assessment model Fischer et al. The input response function is specified as a generalization of a complex but popular yield function in agronomic literature, called the Mitscherlich-Baule yield function. The rationale behind this specification is that the observed actual crop output level represents a certain fraction of the biophysical potential and is determined by the factor input levels per unit of land, as well as by the technology employed Albersen et al.

Spatial Structure of Commodity Markets and Trade The model emphasizes the central role of commodity markets and prices in the coordination of actor decisions. It distinguishes regional markets and a world market for each commodity. Price differences between regional markets and the international market are explained from trade and transportation costs and, possibly, government-imposed margins taxes, subsidies, trade quota.

Model simulations cover the period The model is initialized on the basis of detailed benchmark data for the years and The market structure is one of the key features of the welfare program. Below, we outline its representation. Three types of commodities may be distinguished: The arrows indicate the possible directions of the trade flows.

Each trade flow implies at the same time a price margin, due to transportation, trade services, and possibly physical transformation of the commodity e.

In each region, price margins are distinguished between the producer and the regional market, with additional margins to bring the product to the rural and urban consumer, respectively. Furthermore, two-way price margins are specified between regional markets and the world market, with the actual margin dependent on the direction of the trade flow Figure Transportation margins depend partly on such geographic features as topography and transportation infrastructure availability.

Trade flows inside a region. Model Calibration Procedures Modular calibration procedures were established through which it can be ensured that the base year i.

For consumption, we allow for a smooth transition between different linear expenditure systems, under changes in incomes and prices, and specify a separate regression program for its calibration.

For interregional trade, we present a new dual programming technique to calibrate flows so as to meet given net export positions of each region at prices that are sufficiently close to the observed ones and cover the associated transportation costs.

Nonagricultural inputs are treated as closing items to fit the balance of payments.

economic relationship between land use and growing population

We note that such a modular decomposition of the calibration process is essential for the future maintenance of this rather large model, as it makes it possible to keep database operations fully separate from the modeling work, while improvements in the database are in a transparent way transmitted to the model outcome and future replacements in specific model components can be implemented without requiring a complete new calibration.

Moreover, initialization at a fully calibrated base year solution provides a large number of checks and clues for detecting data inconsistencies and programming errors during the debugging phase of model building and also speeds up model computations and solution finding Keyzer and van Veen, Theoretical Background on Aggregation: Micro-Macro Debates We have argued in the previous section that China is far too large and diverse to be dealt with as a single agent or as an economy with only few income groups and producers, for example, in an aggregate computable general equilibrium framework.

A crucial question is what to do then and how to represent the behavior of individuals spread over a spatial and social continuum by means of a tractable number of representative agents and markets, which can be processed in larger models.

These reasons motivated further investigations in the China study on the subject of aggregation. A main finding is that the mathematical technique of mollification or function averaging, which dates back to the s, provides a basis for many of the fundamental assumptions in economics.

If we take payoffs, outputs, or utilities to be comparable, that is, measurable in a common unit across the individuals in the continuum, exact aggregation is possible.

The aim of exact aggregation is to represent exactly the behavior of many, that is, a continuum, of individuals by a single representative agent. If we stipulate, first, that individuals live in a multidimensional space characterized by a smooth joint distribution that describes the fixed characteristics of their environment a space with a finite number of physical, social, quality, and possibly even stochastic and temporal dimensionsand, second, that they choose optimally from the options they face, given a finite number of economic signals they receive prices, taxes, quotasthen it can be shown that discrete choices of actors combined with smooth densities lead to aggregate properties that are usually postulated in microeconomic models: This makes it possible to represent profit-maximizing farmers in a spatial and social continuum, yet to obtain relatively standard micro models of agricultural production, with strictly concave and differentiable production functions Keyzer, b.

No exact solution is possible any longer. The idea then is to consider aggregation as a problem of optimal rather than exact representation.

economic relationship between land use and growing population

We seek to find out a how many income groups are necessary to represent the underlying functions, b how the population weights on these groups should be determined, and c how the group demand functions should be specified.

The kernel learning technique of support-vector regression provides a suitable tool to determine optimal weights of representative agents and optimal levels of aggregation Keyzer, b. The spatial aggregation over markets can be regarded as a special case of aggregation over commodities. It aggregates over commodities that are homogeneous physically and differ only by location and can be converted into one another through transportation.

As for commodities, there is no clean theoretical aggregation solution over markets. Projections and the Role of Population in the China Model Given the size and the regional diversity of China, any sensible analysis must consider the regional differences in climate, soil, and water resource endowments, population density, and social and economic development. Multiregional assessments require regionally detailed scenarios.

A key component of such scenarios is the evolution of the population in the different regions Toth, Cao, and Hizsnyik, Such regionally disaggregated population projections are needed for estimating regional food demand and regional labor supply.

They can also serve as background information for modeling development-induced migration, if migration processes are to be explicitly modeled.

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